2012 KICKS OFF WITH NEW HOME PRICE MEASUREMENT; AND, A SLUGGLISH START TO SALES

(Surrey, BC) – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) processed 799 sales in January, a decrease of 4 per cent compared to the 834 sales in January last year and 10 per cent fewer than were processed in December. In the last decade, January 2012 was second only to 2009 for lowest volume.

On the flip side, compared to other starts during the last 10 years, the Board received one of its highest influxes of new listings for January – 2,753 – 5 per cent more than January 2011 and 143 per cent more than December the month before. The increase in new inventory raised the volume of active properties in Fraser Valley to 8,320 by the end of January.

Sukh Sidhu is the Board’s president. “For spring house hunters this is great news. For buying power you can’t beat the combination of greater selection, the continuation of extremely low interest rates and stable prices.”

The Board’s new MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI), launched today, reveals that residential home prices in Fraser Valley have decreased gradually over the last six months, while still showing increases year-over-year.

In January, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $567,700, an increase of 7.6 per cent compared to $527,500 in January 2011 and an increase of 0.1 per cent compared to December.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in January was $314,200, an increase of 2.4 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $306,800 and down 1.1 per cent compared to December. The benchmark price of apartments in January was $199,600, a decrease of 0.1 per cent compared to January 2011 when it was $199,800 and an increase of 0.3 per cent compared to December.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), replacing the Lower Mainland’s MLSLink® Housing Price Index, is a new measure of price for residential properties in five major markets across Canada. It includes Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal, with more markets to be added. It was pioneered by six founding partners: the real estate boards of Calgary, Fraser Valley, Greater Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Greater Toronto and the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Sukh Sidhu says the new MLS® HPI will be very helpful to REALTORS® in guiding homeowners. “It’s a bigger, better tool to measure the change in home prices in the Fraser Valley and now we can more accurately compare our market to other major cities in Canada.” Learn more at www.homepriceindex.ca.

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2011 REAL ESTATE MARKET SHOWCASES REGIONAL VARIATION

(Surrey, BC) – Overall, Fraser Valley’s real estate market in 2011 was below the 10-year average in property sales and above average in the number of new listings received, however, according to the president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, results varied widely depending on the community and property type.

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board President, Sukh Sidhu observes, “I can’t remember a year that illustrates better how local real estate is and the importance of talking to your REALTOR® before making a decision to buy or sell. For example, in my community of Abbotsford, sales of single family homes dropped by almost 7 per cent compared to 2010, pushing prices down slightly, while in South Surrey/White Rock sales increased year over year by 45 per cent resulting in double-digit price increases.”

The Board’s Multiple Listing Service® processed 15,529 sales in 2011 compared to 14,891 the previous year, an increase of 4 per cent, while the number of new listings remained about the same – 31,592 in 2011 compared to 31,437 in 2010. Over the year, the number of active listings for buyers to choose from dropped by 9 per cent going from 8,139 properties in December 2010 to 7,399 in December 2011.

Although 2011 ranks the third slowest year for sales in Fraser Valley since 2002, it was only 10 per cent less than the 10-year average of 17,210 sales. The volume of new listings received in 2011 was 6 per cent more than the 10-year average of 29,867 new listings, placing last year third in ranking since 2002.

Sidhu adds, “One trend from 2011 that is clear was the preference for single family homes. For the most part in our region, both sales and prices of townhomes and condos either stayed on par with 2010 or decreased.”

In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $522,998, an increase of 3.3 per cent compared to $506,145 in December 2010 and a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to November.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $315,330, a decrease of 2.1 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $322,054 and down 3.8 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $237,285, a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to December 2010 and a decrease of 0.5 per cent compared to November.

Average prices year over year show detached homes up 9.1 per cent – $610,269 in 2011 compared to $559,456 in 2010. The average price of townhomes increased by 2.6 per cent, going from $336,484 in 2010 to $345,138 in 2011 and the average price of apartments increased by 0.9 per cent going from $223,910 in 2010 to $225,976 in 2011.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,893 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

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STEADY DEMAND FOR HOMES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAYS

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(Surrey, BC) – The November property sales in the Fraser Valley are up slightly compared to last year and didn’t experience the usual month-over-month seasonal decline.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,120 sales in November on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 3 per cent compared to the 1,084 sales during the same month last year and a decrease of 2 per cent compared to 1,139 sales in October. In the last decade, sales decreased on average 9 per cent from October to November.

Board president, Sukh Sidhu says, “Given the time of year, Fraser Valley is experiencing steady buying activity with notable month-over-month increases in the sale of homes with an attractive price point.

“For example, townhome sales in central Surrey increased by 20 per cent in one month and in Langley by 43 per cent.” Sidhu adds, “Fraser Valley offers buyers the key value of affordability. Currently, over half of our townhomes and condos are listed for $289,000 or less.”

While sales remained stable, MLS® inventory decreased from October to November, typical for the time of year. The board posted 1,926 new properties in November, an increase of 9 per cent compared to November of last year and a decrease of 23 per cent compared to October. November finished with 9,471 active listings in the Fraser Valley, 5 per cent more than the same month last year and 5 per cent less than October’s 10,005 listings.

Sidhu says, “Even with fewer listings coming on stream, buyers can still take advantage of almost nine months of inventory, which is putting downward pressure on prices in certain areas and property types.” Prices for a typical Fraser Valley apartment are down year-over-year and month-over-month, while both single family detached and townhomes are still showing positive price gains compared to November last year and remain stable compared to October.

In November, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $532,086, an increase of 5.4 per cent compared to $504,848 in November 2010 and an increase of 0.3 per cent compared to October.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in November was $327,764, an increase of 2.5 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $319,623 and up 0.7 per cent compared to October. The benchmark price of apartments in November was $238,461, a decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to November 2010 and a decrease of 2.2 per cent compared to October.

HOME SALES IN FRASER VALLEY HOLD STEADY IN AUGUST

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,341 sales on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, an increase of 35 per cent compared to the 997 sales during the same month last year and slightly higher than the 1,322 sales in July.

Sukh Sidhu, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, says, “We typically see a summer dip in sales in August compared to July and that didn’t happen this year. We attribute the current steady market to interest rates remaining favourable, as well as buyers taking advantage of home prices softening slightly in certain markets and an influx of new inventory across all property types.”

The board posted 2,644 new properties on its MLS® in August, an increase of 26 per cent compared to August of last year and 10 per cent fewer than it received in July. The number of active listings in the Fraser Valley remained at 10,074 in August, on par with July’s volume.  

“The number of homes on the market remains at a yearly high, which combined with a decrease in sales, can put downward pressure on pricing. We’re only seeing this in some communities for certain property types underlining the importance for both sellers and buyers to obtain local real estate expertise.

“Year over year, home prices in the Fraser Valley are either on par or showing increases; month over month, benchmark prices for the three main residential property types combined declined by 1.3 per cent.”

The benchmark price of a single family detached house in the Fraser Valley in August was $528,959, an increase of 3.7 per cent compared to $510,107 in August 2010.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in August was $327,317, an increase of 0.9 per cent compared to $324,485 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in August was $245,751, an increase of 2.5 per cent compared to $239,659 in August 2010. 

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Stable property sales and a steady erosion of inventory for the last seven months of 2010 have brought equilibrium to Fraser Valley’s real estate market.

“Our market was a bit of a rollercoaster in 2010 with buyers appearing earlier than expected in the year, tapering in the summer and returning in the fall,” says Deanna Horn, Board president.

“As consumers regained their confidence in the overall economy, we saw a normalization of the market with sales at or slightly below average, inventory dropping and modest changes in home prices.”

A total of 895 sales were processed on the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in December, a decrease of 17 per cent compared to November and a decrease of 29 per cent compared to 1,260 sales in December of last year. The Board’s 10-year average for December sales in the last decade is 1,020.

In terms of listings, the Board finished 2010 with 8,139 active listings, 10 per cent fewer than in November and an increase of 25 per cent compared to the 6,534 properties available in December 2009. December’s inventory represents a 28 per cent drop from 2010’s peak of 11,411 active listings reached in May.

Horn adds, “If there’s one lesson buyers and sellers can take from our market in 2010, it’s to recognize there are real differences in home values based on their type and location making it prudent to have your REALTOR® show you comparisons specific to your property type and neighbourhood.

“For example, benchmark prices of condominiums in North Surrey have decreased by 3.8 per cent in the last year while benchmark prices of detached homes in west Abbotsford have increased by 4 per cent.”

Overall, the benchmark price for Fraser Valley detached homes in December was $506,145, an increase of 0.3 per cent compared to November and 1.7 per cent higher compared to $497,732 in December 2009.  

The benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses in December was $322,054, an increase of 0.8 per cent compared to November and a 1.2 per cent increase compared to December 2009 when it was $318,174. Year-over-year, the benchmark price of apartments increased 1.2 per cent going from $237,157 in December 2009 to $240,101 in December 2010 and 0.9 per cent lower compared to November 2010.

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Fraser Valley buyers and sellers continued to take a holiday from the real estate market in August with the region’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) showing a decrease in sales, new listings and overall inventory compared to July.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 997 sales on its MLS® in August, a decrease of 44 per cent compared to the 1,786 sales during the same month last year and 9 per cent fewer than in July, however 10 per cent more than the 910 sales in August 2008.

Deanna Horn, FVREB President, explains, “In August, sellers in the Fraser Valley took as much of a break as buyers."

“Even with our slowdown in sales, we’re seeing inventory edge lower. Since May, we’ve seen our volume of active listings decrease by 10 per cent.”

The Fraser Valley Board posted 11 per cent fewer new listings in August compared to the previous month, the fourth month in a row of declining new inventory. At the end of August, the total active inventory was 10,287, 5 per cent less than in July, however still 14.5 per cent more than the selection available in August 2009.

Horn adds, “Our selection of homes is healthy, interest rates remain historically low and prices are moderating, which represent excellent conditions for buyers. We’re currently seeing residential prices edge down month-over-month, but remain 4.7 per cent higher than they were a year ago.”

The benchmark price for Fraser Valley detached homes in August was $510,107, down 0.1 per cent compared to July and 5.4 per cent higher compared to $483,839 in August 2009.

The benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses in August was $324,485, a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to July and a 4.5 per cent increase compared to August 2009 when it was $310,389. The benchmark price of apartments decreased by 1.9 per cent from July and increased 1.5 per cent year-over-year going from $236,146 in August 2009 to $239,659 in August 2010.

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Both sources are respectable, and their data accurate. But different methodology has led to a discrepancy between the figures. So where does the Canadian housing market stand?

Economists and those in the real estate industry believe conditions fall somewhere in the middle.

The price of a Canadian home was down 6.7% in April from a year earlier, the relatively new Teranet–National Bank House Price Index showed Wednesday. It was the fifth consecutive month of yearly decrease and caused the index to be down 8.9% from its peak in August. Home prices in Vancouver were down 10.9% from April last year, while prices dropped 9.8% in Calgary and 7.6% in Toronto. On a positive note, prices were up 2.4% in Montreal, 0.6% in Ottawa and 0.2% in Halifax.

But the data are in strong contrast to Multiple Listing Service figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Monday last week.

The MLS figures showed the average national home price for May was up a robust 16.4% from January, setting a record high of $319,757.

Other indicators have thrown a few spanners in the works. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday Canadian house prices fell 11% in the first quarter, while Statistics Canada's index on new home prices, released at the beginning of the month, showed prices in April had fallen 3.2% since hitting a record high in September 2008.

With the economy in recession and unemployment increasing, Millan Mulraine, an economics strategist at TD Securities, said it was hard to justify a rise in house prices, as suggested by the CREA survey. But he was not convinced prices had fallen as sharply as the Teranet-National Bank survey had found.

"I would suspect that somewhere in between is the true state. If anything, I think it would be more on the negative side," Mr. Mulraine said. He said the discrepancy between the two sources was likely due to sampling and methodology differences.

The Teranet-National Bank figure is calculated by using the sale prices of homes that have been sold at least once before, a method designed to smooth volatility in the reading. The CREA figure is the average sale price of all homes sold through the MLS. The figure can be skewed by the mix of homes that were sold with the location, size and type of home all impacting price.

"You can't argue with the accuracy of the number, but you can argue that the number misrepresents what's happening in the marketplace if something out of the ordinary is happening," said Phil Soper, the president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.

He said home prices had not changed much since January, but seasonal factors skewed the data when comparing it on a monthly basis. For instance, many of the homes sold over the winter were distressed sales as a result of the recession, which artificially lowered the average house price compared with the return to normalized activity over spring and summer. Compared with a year ago, the CREA data showed the average house price was largely flat.

Paul Ferley, an economist at RBC Capital Markets said housing start activity continued to suggest weakness in the market. However, he said the market was close to a trough and poised for improvement.