BUYERS SEE VALUE IN SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES IN THE FRASER VALLEY 

 

(Surrey, BC) – In March, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 1,259 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 12 per cent compared to the 1,128 sales during March of last year, and a 14 per cent increase compared to February’s 1,102 sales.

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Ray Werger, President of the Board, says, “We did see activity pick up last month with an increase in demand in particular for single family detached homes. Sales were noticeably higher in North Delta, Mission and Langley compared to last year.

“Last March, sales of detached homes accounted for 55 per cent of sales of our three main residential property types and this year that increased to 58 per cent. It may not sound like much, but that translated into over 100 more sales. The property type that lost ground was townhouses.”

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Click on image to see full Fraser Valley stats package.

Werger explains,

“Our main buyers are families looking

for the best value possible by taking advantage

of continuing low interest rates

and stable home prices.” 

 

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The most popular price range for single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley last month was between $500,000 and $600,000. The benchmark price of a typical detached home was $563,400, an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to $544,300 during the same month last year.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in March was $297,100, a decrease of 0.4 per cent compared to $298,200 in March 2013 and the benchmark price of apartments was $195,400, a decrease of 4.3 per cent compared to $204,200 in March 2013.

The Board posted 2,799 new listings last month, an increase of 2 per cent compared to the 2,736 posted during March of last year bringing the total number of active listings in March to 8,763 – 8 per cent less than were available during March 2013.  
Werger adds, “We can’t emphasize enough that real estate is local. What’s happening with the Fraser Valley housing market in general may or may not be happening to the market for your home. Contact your local REALTOR® for detailed market information by community, neighbourhood and property type.”

Full package Here

SURREY, BC – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) recorded 1,102 sales in February, an increase of 43 per cent over January’s sales and an increase of 21 per cent over the 913 sales during February of last year.

Ray Werger, President of the Board, says, “The last time we saw an improvement in the market this early in the year was two years ago when we ended up having a solid, steady market from February through to mid-summer. It’s too early to predict whether this year will be similar, but for now sales are up and the average number of days to sell a detached home is one week faster than it was in January.”

Check out Local Garage Sales by Map – Coming Back this April.

“Although sales have picked up, it’s important to mention that they’re still hovering about 10 per cent below our 10-year average and the increases in activity are specific to property type and location, so be sure to ask your REALTOR® how your home and neighbourhood compare.”

The Board posted 2,666 new listings last month, an increase of 3 per cent compared to the 2,582 posted during February of last year bringing the total number of active listings in February to 8,210 – 11 per cent more than were available in January and 8 per cent less than were available during February 2013.

Werger adds, “Generally, we’re finding for all property types if they’re priced right there is a buyer; however, demand for single family detached homes and townhomes is the most consistent with certain pockets in Langley, Abbotsford and North Delta that are thriving, which is why prices for detached homes in those areas are either on par or elevated compared to last year.

It won’t be long until we see these beauties again!!

“Fraser Valley’s condo market, moderately busier in February, continues to favour buyers offering excellent opportunities due to higher levels of inventory and prices comparable to what they were eight years ago.”

In February, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $558,100, an increase of 3.2 per cent compared to $540,900 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $298,900, an increase of 0.7 per cent compared to $296,700 in February 2013 and the benchmark price of apartments was $193,200, a decrease of 4.6 per cent compared to $202,500 in February 2013.

In February, it took on average 51 days to sell a detached home compared to 58 days in January. Townhomes took 55 days on average to sell compared to 60 days the month before and apartments spent an average of 70 days on the market in February compared to 86 days in January.

Find the February Statistics Package here.

For more on your local Real Estate, contact HudsonHomeTeam

(Surrey, BC) – Neither predictions of a huge crash or notable recovery came to pass in 2013 as Fraser Valley’s real estate market stayed slow and steady, similar to 2012’s market.

Fraser Valley’s total sales volume last year was 13,663 a decrease of 1.5 per cent compared to 13,878 in 2012. Over the course of the year, Fraser Valley REALTORS® listed 29,338 properties on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), a 5.4 per cent decrease compared to 2012’s 31,009 listings. The number of active listings at year’s end finished at 7,541, 5 per cent higher compared to 7,187 active listings in December 2012.

Ron Todson, President of the Fraser Valley Board, says, “It wasn’t the best of years, nor was it the worst. Generally speaking, 2013 overall was quiet. Earlier in the year, our market felt the impact of the tighter mortgage regulations, rebounded some in the summer and then flattened again come fall.

“The positive for both buyers and sellers has been the stability in home prices. Although our sales last year were amongst the lowest they’ve been in last decade, we didn’t see significant price declines because our inventory also remained lower. When both buyers and sellers take a breather it has a balancing effect on the market where neither has the upper hand.” 

In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $549,500, an increase of 1.9 per cent compared to $539,000 in December 2012 and a decrease of -0.1 per cent compared to November.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $293,300, a decrease of 1.0 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $296,400 and up 0.3 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $192,600, a decrease of 3.7 per cent compared to December 2012 when it was $200,100 and a decrease of 1.8 per cent compared to November.

Annual average prices year over year show detached homes up 3 per cent – $615,852 in 2013 compared to $597,608 in 2012. Townhome average prices decreased by 0.7 per cent, going from $340,253 in 2012 to $337,811 in 2013 and the average price of apartments decreased by 0.4 per cent going from $220,033 in 2012 to $219,196 in 2013.

For the month of December, property sales were down compared to November, as is the seasonal norm – 890 compared to 986; however, they were a 34 per cent improvement over the 664 sales in December 2012.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,769 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission.  The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

Full Stats package:  Here

Remember to add this link to your bookmarks. It will come in handy later in the spring, when you are thinking of hosting a Garage Sale.

Fraser Valley housing market gets its groove back

SURREY, BC – Buyers and sellers in the Fraser Valley took advantage of the record breaking hours of sunshine in July as both sales and listings on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) experienced a noticeable lift.

The Board processed 1,456 sales in July, an increase of 5 per cent compared to the 1,393 sales in July of last year and 10 per cent more than were processed in June. By historical comparison, sales in July ranked sixth going back to 2004. For over a year, monthly sales in Fraser Valley have been trending at 10-year lows.

Ray Werger is the President-elect of the Board. “Buoyancy during the summer is rare at the best of times and yet I’ve just experienced the busiest July in my 20 plus years as a REALTOR®. To jump from the worst June in 10 years to a slightly below average July may not sound unusual or unexpected but it was.

“We’re likely experiencing some pent-up demand coming off some very slow winter months, tiny changes in mortgage rates are always incentive for many buyers, and let’s not underestimate our glorious weather. For our buyers and sellers, a return to a normal, balanced market is welcome news.”

In July, Fraser Valley’s sales-to-active-listings ratio – a comparison of sales and inventory that measures the health of the market – was 14 per cent for all property types and 18 per cent for single family detached homes and townhomes indicating stability in the marketplace.

The Board received 2,777 new listings in July – 5 per cent fewer than received during the same month last year, but 6 per cent more than were received in June – leaving the volume of active properties at 10,428 a decrease of 4 per cent compared to July 2012.

In July, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $551,000, virtually on par with $551,400 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $297,800, a decrease of 1.8 per cent compared to $303,400 in July 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $202,000, 2 per cent less than in July 2012 when it was $206,200.

Werger adds, “Year over year, prices are stable or down slightly, however the six month trend is showing one to two per cent increases for all property types; again underlying the return to an average or typical housing market.”

To see the latest statistics package, click here.

So July has come and gone (without rain I might add!).

(Don’t forget this weekend’s Spirit of The Sea Festival in White Rock).

The Real Estate Stats package isn’t out yet, but here are a couple of interesting bits of info for you.

Listings in July were down by just shy of 6% over the same time last year.

Sales on the other hand were up by just over 5% from the same time last year.

 

Comparing July to June, listings were up by almost 6% in July and sales were up by 10% as well.

Property sales in the Fraser Valley remain static with localized bright spots

July, 03 2013 11:57:22 am, by FVREB

Property sales in the Fraser Valley were 9 per cent lower in June compared to last year – 1,327 compared to 1,463 in June 2012 – remaining significantly below 10 and 20 year averages. However, data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reveals localized bright spots where sales have rebounded since May.

Ron Todson is the Board’s president. “In the last month, sales of single family detached homes have picked up in North Delta, North Surrey, Langley and Abbotsford, and in some neighbourhoods where we’ve seen a decrease in new listings, we now have a shortage of quality inventory.
“It’s too soon to know if this trend shows increased consumer demand in general, or if it’s specific to those communities, property types and price points, but it does speak to the importance of getting local real estate expertise if you’re thinking of buying or selling because of the wide variance in the market depending on neighbourhood and property type.”
The Board received 2,625 new listings in June – 9 per cent fewer than received during the same month last year – leaving the volume of active properties at 10,515 a decrease of 1 per cent compared to June 2012 and 1 per cent fewer than were available in May.
Todson adds, “In general, prices are flat and firm. They remain on par with what they were a year ago and that stability is thanks to inventory levels remaining in check, but again similar to sales, price increases or decreases vary.

Get all the MLS listings you want while in the area you want. Just click on the Smartphone:

See the full statistics package for June here.

Prices continue to hold their own in transitioning housing market

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) processed 1,379 sales in May, a decrease of 15 per cent compared to the 1,616 sales in May of last year and 1 per cent more than were processed in April. By historical comparison, sales in May were the slowest for that month since 2001.
Looking at inventory, the Board received 3,172 new listings in May – 4 per cent fewer than received during the same month last year – raising the volume of active properties to 10,651 the highest it’s been this year and 2 per cent lower than those available in May 2012.

Ron Todson, President of the Board, says, “We’re in a transitioning market. We’ve seen a significant improvement in activity compared to last fall, but by historical standards we’re lagging. Sales are about 20 per cent lower than normal for this time of year, while the number of new listings coming on stream is right on average.”

An industry standard for measuring the health of the real estate market is comparing the ratio of number of sales to the number of active listings. The British Columbia Real Estate Association describes the Lower Mainland market as balanced when that ratio is between 15 and 20 per cent. In the Fraser Valley, that ratio has favoured buyers hovering between 10 and 15 per cent for most of the last three years.
Todson adds, “In order for there to be significant downward pressure on home prices, you need to have a sustained period of time when the ratio of sales-to-actives is in the single digits and because that hasn’t happened, prices are remaining relatively stable.”
In May, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $549,200, an increase of 0.2 per cent compared to $548,000 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $298,000, a decrease of 2.9 per cent compared to $306,800 in May 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $203,400, virtually unchanged from $203,600 in May 2012.
“Real estate is specific to community and property type and conditions can change rapidly,” says Todson. “For example, the townhome market in Langley currently is brisk; the condo market in White Rock is not. The range in Fraser Valley alone is considerable, which is why it helps to have a local REALTOR® guide you and look out for your best interests.”

See the full statistics package for May here.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association’s Chief Economist, Cameron Miur outlines the current market situation in BC as well as updates us on the forecast for our Real Estate market in the coming months.

Cameron Miur

For more information, contact us: info@hudsonhometeam.com

Spring market bolsters MLS® activity in Fraser Valley

Home sales increased in April, with the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reporting 1,366 sales processed through its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 21.1 per cent compared to March’s 1,128 sales, but still lagging behind April 2012’s 1,435 sales.

“Historically, sales and listings activity noticeably increases during the spring months and April was no exception,” explains Ron Todson, President of the Board. “What’s different this year is that a number of external factors, such as tighter credit rules and the government’s spotlight on consumer debt have made some consumers more cautious about buying or selling a property. However, for those who need to move to a bigger or smaller home or to another community before summer hits, its business as usual because when you need a home, you need a home.”
The Board received 2,951 new listings in April, 5.8 per cent fewer compared to last year’s 3,134 new listings in April but up 7.8 per cent from March. Total active inventory at month-end was 9,995 listings, up from March but still down from 2012. The result has been that the balance between sales, new listings and total active inventory shifted slightly in favour of a balanced market, with April’s sales-to-active-listings ratio increasing to 14 per cent compared to March.

Todson says a balanced market helps to keep prices in check. “Depending on the market area and property type, prices are either slightly up or down based on desirability and availability of product, underscoring the importance of understanding what’s going on in your specific area, which is exactly where REALTORS® can help.”

Find your perfect home while you’re in the neighbourhood.

In April, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $547,300, an increase of 0.4 per cent compared to $545,000 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $299,100, a decrease of 2.2 per cent compared to $305,900 in April 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $203,900, virtually unchanged from $203,800 in April 2012.
“Pricing is incredibly important in slower than average markets,” explains Todson, a real estate veteran with 30 plus years in the business. “We’re not seeing the rapid increases in home values of the last decade, which means that sellers may need to sharpen their pricing in order to be competitive, but buyers won’t see dramatic price drops. A balanced, steady market can be a very good market for consumers to be in.”

See the full statistics package for April here.

Lower inventory keeps home prices in check as ‘slow but steady’ market continues

In March, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,128 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), a 20 per cent decrease compared to the 1,412 sales during the same month last year, and a 24 per cent increase compared to February’s 913 sales.
The Board also received 11 per cent fewer new listings in March compared to last year – 2,736 compared to 3,066 – keeping inventory in check. March finished with 9,503 active listings, 1.5 per cent fewer than March of last year and 3.5 per cent fewer than the 9,832 available during March of 2009; the highest volume of active listings for that month in the last decade. 
Ron Todson, President of the Board, explains, “Although we saw a typical spring uptick in activity from February to March, our sales remained at about 70 per cent of the norm for March and our new listings came in at 90 per cent of what the Board would typically receive.

“Because inventory levels are in check, prices are staying in check.”  
In March, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $544,300, an increase of 0.6 per cent compared to $541,300 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $298,200, a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to $303,400 in March 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $204,200, an increase of 0.8 per cent compared to $202,500 in March 2012.

Todson adds, “Inventory levels are not as high as they need to be to put significant downward pressure on prices of the benchmark, or ‘typical’ home. These are homes that have characteristics most common to houses in a given community. 
“In fact, we’re seeing the reverse happen. Benchmark prices for all three main property types in the Fraser Valley increased in value during the first quarter of 2013. Since January, detached homes are up by 1 per cent, townhomes by 0.6 per cent; and apartments by 2 per cent.”

See the full statistics package for March here.

Positive signs Fraser Valley housing market is starting to move

Sales on Fraser Valley’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February experienced a typical ‘early spring’ surge, increasing by 48 per cent in one month going from 617 sales in January to 913 last month. However year-over-year, they reflect a decrease of 28 per cent compared to the 1,269 sales processed in February 2012. Since last September, home sales have idled at levels last seen in the early 2000s.

Based on February’s increase in activity, Ron Todson, President of the Board, is guardedly optimistic, “We’re seeing signals that the stand-off between buyers and sellers over the last six months is coming to an end.

“Business has picked up in the last month with increased traffic at open houses, sellers quicker to accept offers and homes selling on average two weeks faster than they did in January.”

Todson adds that tightening inventory has also had an effect, “When buyers see that their selection is diminishing they’re more motivated to act.” The Board posted 2,582 new listings last month, a decrease of 9 per cent compared to the 2,846 posted during February last year pushing the total number of active listings down by 1.6 per cent compared to 2012.

“As your REALTOR® will explain, each market is different. Right now, the market for detached homes is balanced in North Delta and Langley. The condo market is brisk in Abbotsford and Central Surrey and townhome sales are steady in North and Central Surrey as well as Cloverdale.

“One commonality amongst these areas and property types is greater affordability. What’s not doing well generally anywhere in the Fraser Valley is sales of higher-end homes unless they are priced competitively.”

In February, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $540,900, an increase of 0.7 per cent compared to $537,200 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $296,700, a decrease of 1.3 per cent compared to $300,500 in February 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $202,500, an increase of 1.5 per cent compared to $199,500 in February 2012.

In February, it took on average 49 days to sell a detached home compared to 64 days in January. Townhomes took 60 days on average to sell compared to 72 days the month before and apartments spent an average of 66 days on the market in February compared to 83 days in January.

See the full statistics package for February here.

HOME SALES SLOW TO NEAR HISTORIC LEVELS IN FRASER VALLEY AS BUYERS WATCH AND WAIT FROM SIDELINES

(Surrey, BC) – A total of 617 sales were processed through the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in January, a decrease of 23 per cent compared to 799 sales during the same month last year. January 2013 ranks as the second slowest for that month in the last thirteen years, second only to January 2009 during the global recession.

Scott Olson, president of the board, says there is a distinction between what REALTORS® saw four years ago compared to today. “People want to buy. We’re already seeing early signs of a typical spring market with more foot traffic at open houses and an increase in calls.

“Buyers have been holding off in hopes that prices will drop more, however it’s become clear that sellers are only willing to go so far. Prices for typical homes in the Fraser Valley have decreased by only two to three per cent in the last six months and in January we’re starting to see a reversal of that – in half of our communities prices have crept back up.”

Olson suspects the market stalemate may be coming to an end. “The number one reason people buy a home is a lifestyle decision – you need a bigger home, a smaller one, closer to work or school – so when the right home comes along you can only wait so long.

“With interest rates as low as they are, our local economy as strong as it is and prices so tenacious I think we’ll see the effects of this pent-up demand and a return to more balance in the market.”

In the last six months, prices for all three residential property types combined have decreased by 2.5 per cent while year over year they’re on par, showing an increase of 0.7 per cent. Of the three property types, prices of single family detached homes have been the most resilient, increasing 1.5 per cent in the last year going from $532,700 in January 2012 to $540,500 last month.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in January was $293,700, a decrease of 2.0 per cent compared to $299,800 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in January was $200,400, an increase of 1.2 per cent compared to $198,000 in January 2012.

REALTORS® added 2,643 new listings in January, 4 per cent fewer than the same month last year. This decreased the number of properties available in the Fraser Valley to 8,031, a decrease of 3.5 percent compared to January 2012. By historical comparison, January 2013 ranks as the third highest in terms of active listings in the last decade.
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The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,802 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

Full package: Here

Fraser Valley real estate sales at lower levels in 2012

Fraser Valley’s real estate market in 2012 will be remembered as the year buyers and sellers took a breather reflecting quieter sales, an average number of new listings and prices overall remaining flat.
The president of Fraser Valley’s Real Estate Board, Scott Olson, says, “The last half of 2012 was like a Mexican stand-off. Buyers kept hoping for greater price drops while sellers who didn’t have to sell just took their home off the market rather than lower their price.
“With the economy so stable, we’re not in a situation where people have to sell their home, so they’re not.  It’s a very different market than in 2008 when listings were at an all-time high and sales were at historical lows.”
The Board’s Multiple Listing Service® processed 13,878 sales in 2012 compared to 15,529 the previous year, a decrease of 11 per cent, while the number of new listings remained about the same – 31,009 in 2012 compared to 31,592 in 2011. Over the year, the number of active listings for buyers to choose from dropped by 3 per cent going from 7,399 properties in December 2011 to 7,187 in December 2012.
Although 2012 ranks the second slowest year for sales in Fraser Valley since 2003, the volume of new listings finished in the middle of the pack.  Scott Olson, says, “Inventory levels are down, which is a sign of a healthy market where insufficient demand leads to reduced supply. This is also keeping prices in most areas either flat or down only slightly.”
In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $539,000, an increase of 1.2 per cent compared to $532,700 in December 2011 and a decrease of 1.0 per cent compared to November.
For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $296,400, a decrease of 2.2 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $303,000 and down 0.8 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $200,100, an increase of 1.6 per cent compared to December 2011 when it was $196,900 and a decrease of 1.3 per cent compared to November.
Average prices year over year show detached homes down 3 per cent – $576,709 in 2012 compared to $594,402 in 2011. The average price of townhomes increased by 3.7 per cent, going from $316,259 in 2011 to $327,935 in 2012 and the average price of apartments decreased by 0.2 per cent going from $218,235 in 2011 to $217,843 in 2012.

See the full statistics package for December here.

Courtesy of:

· TRACY SHERLOCK tsherlock@ vancouversun. com Blog: vancouversun. com/ yourmoney

· VANCOUVER SUN

Only a major economic shock would push down prices in the Lower Mainland, analysts say

My expectation is that next year we will likely see some increased home buying activity than what we’ve been seeing these last several months, that is more reflective of overall economic conditions.
CAMERON MUIR
B. C. REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION

While prospective sellers are waiting in the Lower Mainland housing market, the numbers indicate that prospective buyers are a bit shy too. While prospective home buyers appear to be waiting for an ever elusive real estate bubble to burst in Vancouver, people thinking of selling their homes also appear to be willing to wait.

ARLEN REDEKOP/ PNG FILES

Real estate market experts say they don’t expect a big drop in Vancouver housing prices next year, despite the decline in average prices and number of homes sold in 2012.

The most recent numbers show that home sales dollar volumes are down, unit sales are down and average prices are falling in the Lower Mainland.

Typical prices are also falling in some areas, particularly among single- family homes in more expensive areas like the west side of Vancouver or Richmond.

Sales volume drops

The 10- year average for home sales in Metro Vancouver is 88,000 units per year, while the 15- year average is 79,000 per year. So far this year, 64,000 units have sold and the total could be 68,000 by the end of December.

Alongside sales volumes, the number of new listings has dropped.

“That’s consistent with sellers saying, ‘ It’s not a good time to sell, I’m not selling if I don’t have to,’ ” said Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B. C.

While prospective sellers are waiting, the numbers indicate that prospective buyers are a bit shy as well. “The market right now is both slow and tentative. There are a lot of people out there being very tentative because they’re not really sure where things are going,” Somerville said. “I can’t say how many buyers are in the market — I want to differentiate between that and the prices they are willing to pay. Maybe there are people who are actually interested in buying, but they’re either waiting for prices to be at a certain point, or they’re making offers that aren’t being accepted. I can’t differentiate between those things.”

Concerns about the global economy may be another reason for the “tentative” market, Somerville said.

“My general sense is that it’s hard to see where a market turnaround is going to come from in the short run until there is more confidence and clarity about the American economy,” Somerville said. “Even without the fiscal cliff, the American recovery is very slow. Given the state of things in Europe and China, you’re not looking at any dramatic economic growth that’s going to pull the Canadian economy along. Part of the story is for the housing market to pick up, there has to be more juice to the economy.”

While a pickup in the market may require more “juice,” a crash would require a significant event, Somerville said.

“To get prices to really tank, you’ve got to have something happen. Either you’ve got to have overbuilding, or you’ve got to have some big change in the world of finance, such as large movement in interest rates or a financial disruption, or you’ve got to have a real negative economic shock,” Somerville said. “You’ve got to have some combination of those, or one of those to make prices drop dramatically.”

Overbuilding of single- family homes in Metro Vancouver is difficult because land is so limited, Somerville said.

“On the condo side, even though starts have picked up, it’s nowhere near where they were during the peak. The yield curve for interest rates is very flat so the market isn’t expecting interest rates to rise dramatically,” Somerville said. “But if I could predict interest rates, I could be really, really rich.”

Price plunge unlikely

Cameron Muir, B. C. Real Estate Association chief economist, thinks if buyers are waiting, they could be waiting a long time.

“Three years ago we saw the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression and an ensuing global recession. If that’s wasn’t enough to trigger a correction in an asset bubble, I don’t know what is,” Muir said.

“The condo market in Vancouver has not been ‘ hot’ since 2009, and perhaps even earlier than that. Prices on the condominium side have been relatively flat for three years, so that doesn’t signal any kind of asset bubble welling up,” Muir said. “There has also been little speculation in the marketplace over the past few years and home builders have been kept in check in terms of their total units in production.

Like Somerville, Muir said the market won’t crash unless there is a recession or a spike in interest rates.

“In order to have a significant price decline — you’re hearing a 25 to 40 per cent price decline that some pundits have thrown out there — in order to see that materialize, you need to see household disaster writ large, such as what we saw in the United States,” Muir said.

For example, in the early 1980s, house prices in some areas in Metro Vancouver dropped sharply, but that was after interest rates went up 10 percentage points within a year, Muir said.

“In 1982, the five- year posted mortgage rate was, I believe, 21.5 per cent at its peak. You can imagine what that does to a housing market,” Muir said. “Housing prices fell dramatically — they fell 40 per cent in some markets.

“But are you willing to sell your house at 60 cents on the dollar? Why would you do that? You have to have a reason for prices to fall dramatically. You don’t have to sell and people have to have somewhere to live.”

Muir said he believes the U. S. will find a compromise on the fiscal cliff tax increases and spending cuts before the U. S. is thrown back into a recession.

“I understand ( the fiscal cliff) would shave most of the growth out of the Canadian economy, if it happens,” Muir said. “While it all sounds ominous, and it is, barring a meltdown in the U. S. political system, I don’t see conditions here in B. C. warranting such a shock to real estate.”

Muir talked about the late 1990s, a time when he said the economy was in the doldrums, thousands of people were leaving the province in search of jobs and B. C. had a leaky condo crisis.

“That was a localized shock to the real estate market,” Muir said. “We saw prices fall, but they only fell a few per cent a year for a few years and then they came right back.”

Fundamentals are strong

Another sign of strength in the Lower Mainland market is that prices bounced back quickly after the recession, Muir said.

“January 2009 was pretty gloomy, with home sales running at low levels we hadn’t seen since the early 1980s, and we ended 2009 approaching record levels of sales. That was quite a turnaround,” Muir said.

Muir expects sales numbers to pick up in 2013, because the market fundamentals are strong.

“We’ve seen some pretty strong growth in full- time jobs, we have interest rates at or near historic lows and we still have an expanding population base,” Muir said.

“All of those things point to consumer demand running in the longer- term average levels at least, and right now they’re quite far below that,” he said.

“My expectation is that next year we will likely see some increased home buying activity than what we’ve been seeing these last several months, that is more reflective of overall economic conditions. Overall home sales are expected to trend toward their long- term averages,” Muir said, adding that pent- up demand could contributed to increased sales activity in 2013.

For the second month in a row, property sales on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) have decreased to historically low levels.  In September, a total of 857 sales were processed on the MLS®, a decrease of 26 per cent compared to 1,165 sales in September 2011 and 20 per cent fewer than in August.

Scott Olson is the president of the Board. “Our market was very stable up until July and then within two months it changed.

“The federal government’s tightening of mortgage rules this past spring may be having an effect. We’ve seen this pattern before when rules have changed and hopefully given the strength of our local economy and stability of interest rates, this slowdown will be short term.”

Olson adds that properties offering more affordability remain in demand. “Sales of more expensive homes – single family detached – have decreased disproportionately more than the sales of townhomes and apartments. In fact, apartment sales last month in Surrey, Langley and White Rock were higher or comparable to September of last year keeping prices across the Fraser Valley resilient.”

Over the last three months, prices for all three residential property types combined have decreased by 0.4 per cent while year over year they’ve increased by 2.1 per cent.  For single family detached homes, the benchmark price increased by 3 per cent in one year, going from $533,400 in September 2011 to $549,500 last month.
For townhouses, the benchmark price in September was $300,500, a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to $305,700 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in September was $207,000, an increase of 4.1 per cent compared to $198,800 in September 2011.

Last month, the Board received 4 per cent fewer listings than it did one year ago, 2,544 in September 2012 compared to the 2,651 in September 2011. The number of active listings finished at 10,348 in September, 2 per cent higher than the same month last year, yet on par with the number available on the market in August.
It took four days longer on average to sell a detached home last month compared to September 2011 – 49 days compared to 45. Townhouses sold in an average of 57 days in September compared to 52 last year and last month, apartments took 69.5 days on average to sell compared to 63 during September of last year.

See the full statistics package for September here.

September, 05 2012 12:52:43 pm, by FVREB

SURREY, BC – In August, sales on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) ranked the third lowest for the month in the last decade – after 2008 and 2010.

Last month’s 1,073 property sales represent a 20 per cent decrease compared to the 1,341 sales during August of last year and 23 per cent fewer than in July. In 2008, the Board processed 910 sales in August, and in 2010, 997.

Olson says, “And we’re seeing evidence of that growth in the sales of more affordable, attached properties in the Fraser Valley. For example in August, apartment sales went up significantly in Central Surrey and Abbotsford and remained on par in North Surrey and Cloverdale compared to last year, suggesting that first-time buyers are continuing to find opportunities.”

Similar to sales, the Board saw a decrease in new listings. We received 2,406 in August, a decrease of 8 per cent compared to August 2011 and 18 per cent less than we received in July. This caused the number of active listings to decrease month-over-month, however the 10,366 active listings at month end still remained 3 per cent higher than the 10,074 listings available in August 2011.

Across the Fraser Valley, the benchmark price of a single family detached house in August was $551,400, an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to $532,700 in August 2011.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in August was $303,000, a decrease of 0.7 per cent compared to $305,200 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in August was $206,600, an increase of 3.4 per cent compared to $199,800 in August 2011.

Olson adds, “Overall, we’re seeing prices stay resilient, however in almost half of our communities, the three-month trend is showing a decrease in prices while the other half is showing increases so for a detailed market analysis, check with your local REALTOR®.”

See the full statistics package for August here. 

For the fifth consecutive month, the ratio of property sales in the Fraser Valley compared to the number of listings on the market has remained stable. In June, it was 14 per cent – the same as it was in February and April of this year. In March and May of 2012, it was 15 per cent.

Scott Olson, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board explains, “Our market last month remained consistent. Our sales were down compared to May, however the number of new listings we received dropped as well, which seasonally is typical for June in the Fraser Valley.”

Last month, the Board posted 1,463 sales, a decrease of 9 per cent compared to May and 8 per cent fewer than the 1,588 sales processed on the Board’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) during June of 2011.  At the same time, the Board received 2,898 new listings, a decrease of 12 per cent compared to May and an increase of 5 per cent compared to those received during the same month last year. The decrease in new listings pushed the number of active listings down slightly in June – by 1 per cent – compared to the previous month, however still 9 per cent more than were available in June of 2011.

“Although our inventory is trending at historically high levels, sales have remained steady so we’re not seeing significant downward pressure on residential prices overall.
“There are individual property types and areas with their unique trends, which consumers can ask their local REALTOR® about directly, however across the Fraser Valley in June, both average and benchmark prices, the price of a ‘typical’ home, for detached properties remained on par month-over-month and showed positive gains year-over-year.”
The composite benchmark price as determined by the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS®HPI) of a single family detached home in Fraser Valley increased 3.6 per cent in one year. It went from $548,000 in June 2011 to $551,000 last month. 
In June, the MLS®HPI composite benchmark price of a Fraser Valley townhouse was $305,000, on par with 2011 and the composite benchmark price of an apartment increased by 0.7 per cent year-over-year; going from $202,100 in June of last year to $203,600 last month.
Olson adds, “Another market gauge we monitor closely is the average number of days it’s taking to sell properties. In June, it took on average 44 days to sell a detached home in the Fraser Valley and give or take a day this has stayed the same for four months, another sign of stability.”
See the full statistics package for June here.

FRASER VALLEY HOUSE HUNTERS LOOKING FOR GOOD BUYS; KEEPING PRICES RESILIENT

(Surrey, BC) – The The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,412 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, a decrease of 22 per cent compared to March of last year, however only 13 per cent less than the 10-year average of 1,626 sales for same month.

Scott Olson, president of FVREB, says, “It was quieter than usual for March, but still steady with an increase in demand for more affordable properties, in particular detached homes for less than $500,000 and townhomes.

“Compared to last March, every community in Fraser Valley experienced a decrease in the sales of single family detached homes especially those priced at the higher-end; however Abbotsford, Langley and North Surrey all saw increases in the sale of townhomes.”

Olson adds, “Last year, single family homes represented 63 per cent of our residential market. This March, it dropped to 56 per cent, so we’re seeing demand for more affordable options. This is in contrast to last year when we saw elevated sales of higher-end homes in areas such as North Delta, South Surrey and White Rock.”

In March 2012 in Fraser Valley, the sale of detached homes with a value greater than half a million dollars decreased by 33 per cent compared to last year, explaining why average prices, which can be skewed by the dollar volume of high or low end sales*, are showing decreases year-over-year, while benchmark prices – homes with typical characteristics for the neighbourhood – are showing increases compared to 2011.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) benchmark price of a detached home in March was $572,700, an increase of 6.8 per cent compared to $536,200 last year. The benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses increased by 1.5 per cent in one year, going from $310,300 in March 2011 to $315,000 in March 2012, while the benchmark price of apartments also increased by 1.5 per cent going from $210,600 in March of last year to $204,700 in March 2012.
The number of Fraser Valley properties on the market in March finished at 9,643, an increase of 5 per cent compared to the same month last year although the number of new listings received – 3,066 – represents a 9 per cent decrease compared to March 2011.

The average number of days to sell a detached home was 46 in March 2012, one day faster than last year. It took 49 days on average to sell a townhouse and under two months or 58 days to sell an apartment.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,903 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

Full Stats Package here

TYPICAL ‘PRE-SPRING’ SURGE IN HOME SALES & NEW LISTINGS KEEPS MARKET STEADY

(Surrey, BC) – The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) recorded 1,269 sales in February, an increase of 59 per cent compared to January and a 1 per cent decrease compared to the 1,279 sales during February of last year.

In terms of new listings, the Board received 2,846 in February, an increase of 3 per cent compared to January and a 6 per cent decrease compared to the 3,038 listings received last February, taking the total number of active listings to 9,037, an increase of 4 per cent compared to those available in February 2011.

As Board President Scott Olson explains, a seasonal increase in sales is typical for February; however this increase was not as robust as in years past. February’s sales finished at 4 per cent fewer than the 10-year average for that month.

“Although our market has picked up, it’s still favouring buyers. In terms of our clients, we’re seeing more caution and deliberation when house hunting.

“This could mean using a home inspection as part of negotiations, or asking for extras to be thrown in, or the client walking away if terms are not met. The other side is that selection at certain price points is limited depending on location, so if the buyer finds the right home, they act, which is keeping prices stable.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a ‘typical’ detached home in Fraser Valley in February was, $569,200, an increase of 8.3 per cent compared to $525,400 last year. The benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses increased by 2.0 per cent in one year, going from $305,700 in February 2011 to $311,900 in February 2012, while the benchmark price of apartments increased by 0.6 per cent going from $200,200 in February of last year to $201,500 in February 2012.
Olson adds, “We anticipate the new HST transition rules will generate more buying activity of new homes over the coming months and will have a spill-over effect on the resale market. The majority of new homes in the Fraser Valley fall under the new $850,000 HST rebate threshold and first-time buyers will be taking advantage of the refundable tax credit bonus of up to $10,000 available until March 31, 2013.

“These changes will improve accessibility in the Fraser Valley, a region already recognized for its affordability.”
–30 –

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is an association of 2,898 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

Full package: Here